I document novel spillover effects of share repurchases on peer firms' equity issuance decisions operating through investors' portfolio rebalancing. Merging Thomson Reuters 13F institutional holdings with firm fundamentals from Compustat and CRSP, I construct a firm-investor panel to show that institutional investors reduce their holdings in repurchasing firms by 5% and reallocate capital toward other firms with similar historical factor exposures or positive covariance of returns. I leverage pre-trends in trading and the idiosyncratic component of repurchase intensity to address reverse causality. Using investors' differential exposure to repurchasing and peer firms, I construct an IV for buyback-induced price pressure and show that firms whose investors are more exposed to repurchases elsewhere in their portfolio are significantly more likely to issue equity and increase investment in physical capital and R&D.

With Nicolo Ceneri

We develop a theory of endogenous market structure in over-the-counter equity markets. A monopolistic platform designs disclosure requirements and listing fees to screen firms with private quality information, generating a tiered market structure with adverse selection varying across tiers. When firm fundamentals are correlated through an aggregate state, tier transitions shift market makers' beliefs about that state; the hump-shaped spread function then translates these belief shifts into spread changes whose signs depend on equilibrium quality beliefs. We calibrate the model to OTC Markets Group data from 2011 to 2025 and show that the model delivers a spread hierarchy, switcher spread adjustments, and universal spread declines for non-switching firms across all tiers following both upgrades and downgrades.

Structural and Policy Drivers of Post-COVID Emerging-Market Resilience

With J. Leon Murillo and A. Zdzienicka; IMF Working Paper

We document that spillovers from advanced-economy shocks to emerging-market real GDP growth have weakened over time, even as the shocks themselves have become larger. Using multi-country panel evidence, identified demand and supply shocks, and local projections, we show that stronger policy frameworks, greater market flexibility, and trade diversification have improved emerging markets' resilience since the mid-2010s. At the same time, countries with deeper financial linkages remain exposed to global disturbances.

Policy Uncertainty, Financial Conditions, and Macroeconomic Outcomes

With Simon Gilchrist and Egon Zakrajsek